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Human estimates of warning uncertainty: numerical and verbal descriptions

Pardowitz, T., Kox, T., Göber, M. & A. Bütow – 2015

Subjective and statistical forecasts of the probability of the occurrence of severe weather events for the city of Berlin were verified. Human estimates of the probability for the occurrence of thunderstorms and wind gusts > 14 m/s in Berlin were found to be reliable and possess significant skill in comparison to the statistical reference forecast. Additionally, the verbal description of warning uncertainty in an operational textual warning report was classified and objectively verified. Results indicate that forecasters actually are aware of the inherent uncertainty, yet express this by means of a multitude of verbal terms. In order to improve the communication and reduce confusions arising from linguistic uncertainty inherent to severe weather information, forecasts should thus contain few and well defined verbal phrases expressing forecast uncertainty. Relating numerical to verbal descriptions of uncertainty revealed a fundamentally different usage of wording when comparing warnings of thunderstorms and wind gusts >14 m/s, with “stronger” wording used in case of thunderstorms. This might indicate that risk information rather than probability information is communicated to the users of the considered warning information.

Titel
Human estimates of warning uncertainty
Verfasser
Pardowitz, T., Kox, T., Göber, M. & A. Bütow
Schlagwörter
Weather warnings, Subjective probability estimates, Reliability, Linguistic uncertainty, Warning verification
Datum
2015
Erschienen in
Mausam 66 (3), 625-634.
Sprache
eng